America's Changing Attitude?

[shaun]

This morning I was watching Fox News.  They were interviewing a man by the name of Gerald Celente; Director of The Trend Research Institute.  He predicted 3 things that cause me some concern.

I do not believe in predicting the future but I do believe that people can influence the future by what they say.

The quotes are from Gerald Celente.

1.  He predicts an anti-immigration movement will arrive and stay in 2010.  This will be brought on by a new 3rd political party.   Quote, "You can bring the immigrants in when you are building economies but when economies are going down they want to push them out.  This is a world wide trend."

2. Not made in China.   A crusade will lead to trade wars and protectionism. The host asks, "So things are not going to be manufactured in China the way we've come to expect? He said, "They will be manufactured there but people are not going to be buying them.  Trade sanctions will be going up."

3.  Quote, "It is bad enough that all the gold goes to there, it is bad enough with the Republican and the Democrats, I don't want to be ruled by the Chinese."

This concerns me.  Do you have any with this attitude?

Here is the link:  http://www.foxnews.com/search-results/m/28177218/fearless-forecast.htm#q=gerald+celente

[ttwjr32]

Shaun,

 the immigration movement he is probably talking about is with
 Mexico. thats were our abuse of the system is taking place.
 as far as other immigration it has been taking a little longer and
 a little longer to get done so i think that trend will continue.
 as far as the chinese remarks sounds like he isnt talking the whole
 picture there  i think he wants more and more made in usa but we
 cant compete with other countries as we feel a little entitlement
 ad will not work for lesser wages. this is part of the issue
in the country now and i dont forsee that changing. to hard for
many people to give up the greed they have been operating on
for these number of years.  i dont know seems like it is just a spiral
downhill that will take quite a few years to come out of.

[RobertBfrom aust]

Shaun , trouble is China now owns more of America than anyone who gets on the anti bandwagon cares to admit , your American wages in general are lower than ours here in Australia , so the fat cats are still getting fatter and nobody cares sooner or later something will give way , you have 17% plus unemployment , Australia has 6 minus and we are complaining at that , and on a per capita basis we buy more from Asia than the states do , and we give very little subsidy to our farming , regards Ying and Robert.

[Vince G]

Robert, Lets stick to the facts.
China loaned money to the US through buying bonds. Some could argue of ownership? but they would have a hard fight for Canadian and Japan has large stock in estates here as well. :huh:

Wage? I don't know what wages are there but here we have a minimum wage of $7.25 an hr. If you get a job at some fast food place that's what you make.

Unemployment? 10% but keep in mind the population difference between the US and Australia?

It is not that the US "Buys" more from China but manufactures there and imports it as well as other low labor cost countries. I'll be doing this myself as what I want to have manufactured? There are none that do it here. There is no choice. Oh sure I could start something up but the cost of multimillions? I don't have that kind of money and investors wouldn't bother when there is more of a turnover having it made in China.

[mustfocus]

Hi Shaun,

Personally, I see some of it happening, but there are some other trends that may mitigate some of those issues...

1) Anti-immgration sentiments have always been there (general public...not isolated to any country in general).  It's just how much influence it's had... Take Indonesia for example...  Back in the 90's (I think that's when it started) many of the native indonesians got really pissed off about the prosperous chinese businesses there.  So they started damaging those businesses until the chinese started to flee.  And the rough part is that many of those chinese were born there.  Last year, Microsoft USA wanted quite a few H3 VISAs (I think that's the code...it's an H number anyway).  Government wanted them to use local talent, but they couldn't find enough.  This year it's not as bad...

2) "made in China" has had a bad image for quite a while.  Last year it intensified with the lead in the paint and a few defective parts.  But I'll tell you something.  Once the prices start going up due to costs, you'll find people saying China's your best buddy again.  Especially since the economy is still fragile.  One thing people seem to forget when dealing with businesses (ANY businesses) is that if you have specific requirements, you have to list them out in the contract.  Unfortunately there are too many companies (not all) out there that will take every shortcut available.  To protect yourself, you have to specify as much as possible to the other company.  I was taking a course on import/export procedures a few years back and the professor specifically told us to specify as much as possible on the import list, otherwise you can get in big trouble.  Good advice really.

3) Not sure where that came from, but I do have to say, what's good for the goose is good for the gander.  Back earlier when the western nations had companies buying a lot of smaller/weaker companies, you didn't hear any complaining.  But not that it's a chinese company... I say what a load of crock.  Eventually the companies will change hands again...maybe under Indian or Korean companies?  If you don't want that to happen, then make a better product and use the money wisely.

One thing to note: I'm not a big fan of any TV network.  They all tend to swing to certain extremes in the political spectrum... As well, I find they all seem to have an agenda...

Nuff said.

[RobertBfrom aust]

Yes Vince, but I have been there done that with glass importations from PPG , but the other side was U S government payback to the company of 30% of the invoice value for exporting , same with orchard and farm produce that is exported to here .
 and 7.25 is pretty close to the unemployment benefits paid to a single out here , our minimum wage in US$ is around 15.00 per hour 36 hour week plus time and a half for overtime , regards Ying and Robert .

[mustfocus]

Yes Vince, but I have been there done that with glass importations from PPG , but the other side was U S government payback to the company of 30% of the invoice value for exporting , same with orchard and farm produce that is exported to here .
 and 7.25 is pretty close to the unemployment benefits paid to a single out here , our minimum wage in US$ is around 15.00 per hour 36 hour week plus time and a half for overtime , regards Ying and Robert .

From what I have been told, you need those types of minimum wages to be able to survive over there.  Is it really that expensive?

[Vince G]

Reality is you can't survive on $7.25 an hour here. I'll give you the math. We have a basic 40 hour week this is considered full time employment. $7.25 times 40 times 4 (weeks) = $1160.00. Income taxes taken before you get your check? Take home pay... $893.20 for the month. A place to live? Cheap in my area...$550.00 a month. place utilities and food and there's nothing left. Keep in mind most businesses that hire minimum wage earners don't have you working a 40 hour week. Or they have to add in benefits (Overtime, insurance, etc)  

Robert, The "US government payback to the company of 30% of the invoice value for exporting" ? I'm not sure about this? It may depend on the contracts written? There are Import fees and taxes on some imports and depends on what it is. In this field everyone has their hand in the cookie jar. It may depend on who or what you know?

[David E]

Robert, Lets stick to the facts.
China loaned money to the US through buying bonds. Some could argue of ownership? but they would have a hard fight for Canadian and Japan has large stock in estates here as well. :huh:

Wage? I don't know what wages are there but here we have a minimum wage of $7.25 an hr. If you get a job at some fast food place that's what you make.

Unemployment? 10% but keep in mind the population difference between the US and Australia?

It is not that the US "Buys" more from China but manufactures there and imports it as well as other low labor cost countries. I'll be doing this myself as what I want to have manufactured? There are none that do it here. There is no choice. Oh sure I could start something up but the cost of multimillions? I don't have that kind of money and investors wouldn't bother when there is more of a turnover having it made in China.

Vince....despite who else holds US Treasury Bonds, and despite who else has Real Estate holdings in USA, it is an absolute fact the in simple economic terms, USA is in debt to China for more money than your annual GDP.

If China never decides to call in this loan (ie sell off its Treasury Bonds ) then there is no real problem. But if China decided to switch its major currency risk into other areas and called the loan to pay for it...OR China decided to make its major currency risk be the gold standard (as India has done recently because it wished to divest itself of the USA Treasury risk money)...then USA would fold as a viable economic entity.

I must disadgree with your evaluation of the competitive rates of employment in USA vs Aussie. Population size has no bearing whatsoever on this issue...we have10% of your population therefore 90% less infrastructure, industry etc to support it.

Our unemployment rate is so low because we have chosen to be a quarry rather than a Factory. So much of our economic earnings is derived from resource production..iron ore, gold, oil, nickel , coal etc etc. These Industries are not hungry for people, it is hugely mechanised.

We dont need to support thousands of second and third level manufacturing Industries that ARE people hungry. When the downturn hit, we still send mountains of raw materials out of Aus each month, so our small, highly mechanised workforce is hardly affected.

In fact, here in the West of Australia...which is where most of the resources are mined, we have a chronic labour shortage and our real unemployment rate is around 3%.....our Government is still recruiting from overseas and our migration intake gets bigger and bigger in an attempt to get more labour.

In answer to the other question from Mustfocus....yes, it is very expensive to live here...but expenses expand to fill income available !!! We are probably very frivolous with our money, because a person working in our North West on a resource project can easily earn $250,000 per annum. Do this for 3 years and you can buy your house outright...many do !!

An average house here costs over $1 million, gas is $1.40 per litre and a cup of coffe in a restaraunt will cost you $8.00. The average family car will be about $45,000. A luxury 4X4 will cost over $100,000 and cars such as BMW or Porsche can cost you anything up to $250,000 !

Much of this price regime has been brought about because of our economic boom, that does not seem to be decreasing, even now.

David

[Vince G]

David E I disagree.. Mmm that rhymes.. :icon_cheesygrin:

Population has everything to do with it if you are getting a percentage of a population that is unemployed.

Currently Australia a population of 22,100,436 with a unemployment of 5%. (same % as the US before)
The US has a population of 308,278,00 with a current unemployment of 10%

That's 110,503 people in Aust. not working to the US's 30,827,800. It's all relative. But, of course the actual amount in Aust. will be lower because there is a less population.

As for the bond's, I have heard what you said before? others saying the same, but I can't debate on it for I do not know the stipulation or agreements between them. So for this all can assume what they will.

[mustfocus]

I've sort of given up on trying to compare income rates.  The main reason being that as you just stated, wages move up with the expenses as well.  Not necessarily in the same ratio, but it does tend to make comparisons difficult.  I just find it interesting that friends and relatives who visit from there exclaim how cheap things are here, but when our minimum wage is also lower.  That said, our government (who I severely have a problem with) is trying to raise this (although in a bumbling throw things to the wind way).  But that's just a different way of approaching things.

(Just a note...never let me become the prime minister of Canada if you don't want massive changes)

Canada is a mixed economy.  We have LOTS of resources (in the news, I often see both Canada and Australia when it relates to raw material), but we are also moving towards a service-based industry.  The Americans are going from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based economy.  The progression is so different.  I believe China is currently in a manufacturing-based economy, although it's going to be interesting to see how they evolve out of that.

We could be doing better, but like many of the governments as of late, we haven't managed our expenses very well.  We've also lost focus on where we're going.  Once that happens, I see us moving along much faster (although at this point, I don't know what a service based economy would evolve into).  But that's another topic for another time...

[Neil]

If China never decides to call in this loan (ie sell off its Treasury Bonds ) then there is no real problem. But if China decided to switch its major currency risk into other areas and called the loan to pay for it...OR China decided to make its major currency risk be the gold standard (as India has done recently because it wished to divest itself of the USA Treasury risk money)...then USA would fold as a viable economic entity.

Would China ever do that though?  Wouldn't that anger the US and cause a serious shake-up in the financial world?  I remember reading that it was something they were considering or working towards though.

[mustfocus]

Actually, if China were to divest themselves of all their US treasury bonds, they would be shooting themselves in the foot.  Right now the US is probably China's biggest market...and most likely by a large percentage.  So if your biggest customer can't afford your goods...

That and if China were to try to cash those bonds...the US most likely wouldn't be able to pay those bonds...hence another mess...

[David E]

....and therein lies the dilemma ....stuffed if you do, stuffed if you dont.

It is pure fantasy to think that China would ever committ financial suicide by cashing in all its US Treasury Bonds...both economies would crash.

Problem is, whilst it is conceivable for China merely to "rattle swords" at USA and request more fiscal prudence to protect its investment (which it has done several times in recent history)...there is very little else the Chinese can do about it....and the World waits, holding its breath to see where the Worlds biggest economy is heading !!!! Signs are that it is still on the downhill, but maybe slowing the descent a bit.

The US economy is still in an extremely precarious situation and it is not alone.......After all...would we ever have thought that a place like Dubai would default on its loans , or that a WHOLE Country would declare bancrupcy (Iceland)

Somewhere, somehow, your "astounding " new President has got to show the World that he and his Cabinet are doing SOMETHING to bail out the Ship.

As an outside observer, and this opinion is not an expert one, I am baffled to see what he has done so far...except to accept $2 Million for the Nobel Peace Prize !!!!!

If the World could at least see that something constructive was being done in USA to get back on track, then we could all relax a little more...that goes for both me and the Chinese :icon_cheesygrin::icon_cheesygrin:

[ttwjr32]

he talks a lot but nothing to show for it