China - Next Ten Years?

[Willy The Londoner]

How do our members see China in the next ten years?

I have just seen a report on the BBC TV.  In the past 10 Years, during the Presidency of Hui Jin Tao China's wealth have quadrupled.  at the start of that period there was one US Dollar Billionaire in China now there are 270!

For the first time there are now more people living in Cities than in rural areas.   In my three years here I have seen rural land becoming like city extensions.  From my apartment I can see maybe ten or twelve blocks of apartments being constructed.  Even a new ten floor shopping centre is just up the road.

Whereas when I arrived in Zhongshan I lived on the edge of the city and the edge of the countryside I think very soon I will be in the centre of a thriving part of the city.

With a new President taking office in 2013 will the development and growth continue.

Willy

[maxx]

Willy from my own observations.And from what I have read.And what my wife's family tells me.China's economy is getting ready to take a dive just like the rest of the world.I read a article on the enternet.The other day.That said some developer Built his own little city outside of Beijing.The city was built a couple of years ago.It is a ghost town.Nobody lives there.The city was built to accommodate 100,000 people only 5% of the city is occupied.From what the article said.The land prices and house prices were to expensive.And there is no work.The article did go on to say that the Chinese government did step in and cap the housing prices.All threw China.And that maybe Beijing will inject some more money into the economy to stave off a recession.

When the world economy took a dump 3 years ago.China's exports also took a big hit.It knocked allot of little companies out of business in China.So there is allready allot of unemployment.2 years ago The JiuJiang city government told my mother in law she had to move.Because they were building new houses and businesses.She fought them tooth and nail to keep her home.The government still came in and knocked the houses down and told the people.They had to find another place to live.

My wife talked to her mother Monday.According to my mother in law the city of JIujiang has ran out of money.They are not going to put new houses up or build any business.So my in laws are now the proud owners of a shell of a house.With half a roof and no windows or doors.And the foundation falling in on it's self.The government has  promised to tear down my wife's ants house.and put her a new one up.But I don't see that happening.She also lives in Jiujiang.

In 1976 when China started to open the doors to the the rest of the world.They started in Guangdong province.Because it is the closest province to Hong Kong.The Chinese government stuck all their money and dreams in Guangdong province.Along with Beijing and Shanghai.Well it worked.Cheap labor no labor laws.And free land.So Guangdong province took off like a rocket.Cheap land cheap housing.Warm climate.No E.P.A. Close to a major world shipping port.It was truly a match made in heaven.And I'm sure it is growing a little each year still.

The problem is that it can't be maintained.Western companies are starting to bring the jobs back to there home countries.The price of living has doubled in most parts of China.So the price you have to pay the Chinese worker has also doubled.I seen the other day where the Chinese citizens stood up and told a copper plant that they were not going to open the factory in there town.We have all seen the news story's were China has closed another coal mine because it is a death trap.Or closed another Brick plant.Because they were using child labor.

Willy you live in Guangdong province.IF I lived in China it would be somewhere in Guangdong province.Guangdong province has the most opportunities.And money floating around.But once you get out of Guangdong province and see more of China.You see how utterly poor the rest of the country is.And how hard the people work.Just to to try to make ends meet.

Me and my wife was out walking threw the countryside of Jianxia province one day.And I noticed I didn't hear any birds singing.Or see any wild animals.I asked my wife why we didn't see any of this or hear any birds singing.My wife said it is because.The people have killed all the animals.And ate them.I thought about it.And it makes since.Some of the houses we walked by didn't have glass in the windows.Or doors where there was supposed to be a door.The houses were in real poor shape.With walls falling in.Or part of the roofs collapsing.Most people who had a little food were cooking it outside.On a little fire made out of a old pallet.Or there neighbors door.It was real depressing to see.

We all know or are aware of that history repeats its self.If it repeats it's self with China.Like it has in the past.China will employed on its self in under 5 years.And it will take another 40 years for them to get it fixed again.All it is going to take.Is a couple of years of bad rice harvest.Or a couple of hard winters.And you will have front row seat to a revolution.

[Willy The Londoner]

I hear what you say Maxx.  I have been elsewhere and seen and taken part in the poverty that the majority live under.  When I went to my wifes cousin up country and I wondered why I was being entertained in the shed!  It took a little time to see that the beds and the subsequent cooking to make me realise that ten people lived in this.  Then we went right out into the country and there there was just one room.  As they had a guest of honour, guess who they went out into the yard and brought in two fat chickens that there and then were dispatched at my feet and they were delicious!

The Chinese Government know that more and more info is getting out and more and more 'little' people are winning their cases.

The Chinese Government are in a better position than any others in the world.  The problem has not been created here it is the big banks of the UK and USA.  In fact all this started with the USA people lending too much money on houses people could not afford.  The it snowballed. Then we found just how corrupt the big banks were in both of our countries.

Whatever happens is some places the average person in China is better off than they were 10 years ago.  The top professors of Oxford and London still declare that China is just at the start of the Industrial Revolution that came to the UK some 200 years ago. 

Look in the UK and USA there are people living on less than nothing it has always been so and always will be.

I think that in twenty years China will have the biggest economy in the World.

On the point of USA wages - I was always amazed at just how low wages were there compared to the UK.

Willy

[maxx]

Willy I do agree the Chinese government and banks are in a better position .Then Say the U.K and The American banks.But what the Oxford professors forget to inject into there Studies is the human element.I truly think the average blue Collier Chinese worker is sick and tired of being sick and tired.With little or nothing gained.And since the cost of living in China has doubled in the last three years.It makes it twice as tough to pay the bills at the end of the month.

I think China is about ready to tank like the rest of the world.The reason they haven't tanked yet is because.There banks are not tied to are banks.For China's bubble to burst it will only take a couple of years.Of bad harvest and a few more years of bad government.With corruption and kick backs.

The human factor.I live next door to Willy.Every mourning I go to Willy's house and take his newspaper.While I'm stealing Willy's news paper.I'm kicking Willy's dog.And saying Nasty things to Willy and his wife.Now everybody knows that Willy is a pacifist.So he isn't going to defend himself or his wife.I do this day after day Willy calls the police.The police ignore Willy and tell him to take care of his own problems.So Willy lives with it.Till one day I push Willy's wife down the stairs.And call her bad names.

The next day Willy is waiting behind his door for me to come and take his news paper.When I grab Willy's newpaper.Willy opens his door and beats the hell out of me with a baseball bat.So what happend to the pacifist.Willy has just had enough of being kicked around by the neighborhood bully.I think that is the same place the Chinese workforce is.They have had enough of being kicked around.It doesn't help the Chinese workforce when the boss shows up in his New BMW.And his new 22 year old mistress.Just dripping with jewelery and furs.While they are working hard to try to make there lives better.

I have a Friend who lives in Zhuhai.She owns 4 houses.And a retail store.She can't sell the houses because She bought them before.The Government put a cap on the price that the houses sold for.Now that the cap is in place.To sell the houses she would have to sell them at a lose.This is a hard hit to take.It was hard earned money.She is a single mother of 2 girls.And the construction company that she works for is about to downsize.So she doesn't know if she will have a job.After the down sizing.

You can call the government and complain.But nothing will be done.You will not be compensated for your losses.3 billion people are hard to take care of.So you in act laws.That say that they can make your wife have a abortion when she is  seven months pregnant.You protest this and march down the street letting the world know your tale of woe.So you are arrested beat up and imprisoned against your will.Your family that wasn't arrested is harassed.Your uncle gets fired from his job after 20 years of faithful service.

It smells like a revolution to me.The Chinese people as a whole are tired of being walked on by there government.And all it is going to take is a little spark to set it off.Kill another 60,000 people in a earthquake.Because some government lackey took a kickback.And didn't make sure the construction company was building the houses or schools to code.Boot another 300 people out on the street.So that you can sell there houses to a construction company.so that they can knock down the houses and put new ones up.Then sell the houses to the people you booted to the curb.

Willy all it is going to take is something like this.To set China back 20 years.Ask your wife where the rice she buys comes from.My wife eats Thailand Rice.She ate it in China.And she eats it here.The reason My wife got started eating Thailand rice is because.That was the only rice they had to eat in China.so it says China can't grow enough rice to feed it's people.So to many people.Not enough food.Rising unemployment.Topped with worker being dissatisfied with their place in the great seem of life.I think China has just gotten lucky for the last few years.I think the dance is over and China.Like the rest of the world was left standing with no place to set.

[Pineau]

There is power and money corruption in every government. But here they have had thousands of years to perfect it. What the local folks here say, "every 60 years it's time to change the government again"
The great China economic boon is not for the common folk. It is for the princes of the communist party loyals and their families.  It is not filtering down to the common folk. They are working harder and harder to reach that comfortable lifestyle that is just out of their reach.  They are sick of it and talking revolution under their breath.

These jokers at the top know that the whole economic bubble could burst and so are setting up their families in powerful positions and retirement accounts abroad. And they are exporting cash by the freight car load. It is the elite that are benefiting from China's boom and it is the small factory worker that will take the fall when the bottom falls out.

I don't know the feelings in t Northern China, but here the young people I know  are absolutely sick of it.

[Willy The Londoner]

Ok so the worlds finances will fall flat in a few years!!!!

Then who will find this harder?  The people of Asia who have been living near the bottom for so long or those in the Western World who have been living beyond their means for years?

There is no difference from those in Government here or in the USA or UK or anywhere else.  None are in power for for the people they are there just for themselves. 

How many poor members of a government are there? In the UK 28 out of 29 members of the Government are millionaires.  (Probably the one that is not is because his wealth just fell below that rate after filling up his car with the most expensive gas in the world!).

None ever comes out of government with less than they went in with.   

Those rich men in power in the USA they do not want to pay more taxes, they want those at the bottom to shoulder them.  The same in the UK, It is the ones at the top who got a cut in tax rates so that the money can trickle down to the poor. 

What! when its is stuck in bank accounts in the Cayman Islands alongside all the drug money that was laundered, knowingly or not by big banks  from the barons.   Money that was used by big banks to gamble with!

Gerry, tell me who in the USA and the UK, other than politicians, who are not having to work harder and harder just to stand still and they are getting no nearer a more comfortable lifestyle.

We in the West have caused the financial problems the world over and those outside the West are having to pay for our failings and when the day of reckoning comes I think many are going to be surprised at the result.

I think that the US would be better off with a President that gets voted in for 8 years max and then cannot stand again. Instead of going for two x 4 years. Then they should have to do the things they said they would before the election instead of thinking what they should do to win the second term in four years time.

In the West we need this stability rather than be continually being on the 'get votes' wagon.

Willy

[maxx]

Willy no somewhere we got are wires crossed.Or I didn't make myself clear.I said China's economy will crash in under 5 years.Because of inflation.Rising unemployment.And the peoples feelings toward there government.I don't know much about the U.K. financial situation.But Americas is making slow progress.To putting things right again.The factory's that went to China and to Mexico.Are moving back to the U.S.Because of the crime in Mexico.And because the Chinese labor force demands better working conditions.And better pay.

As for politicians in the U.S yes it is the same.They go into politics broke.And come out years latter multi millionaires.It is the name of the game the world over.

[Willy The Londoner]

Maxx the jobs are only coming back to the USA because Americans are, in the current financial conditions, happy to take any job at any wage! The only way Obama have achieved this is the place high tariffs on Chinese Goods.  In fact from my experiences here anything going in from China is subject to high and strict custom tax.

My wife's niece has a second business manufacturing and selling Chandeliers.  They sell all over the World and the USA is the only place anywhere that the buying customer has problems with their imports.
 
The Arab States and Australia are their best customers.
 
Your government is blaming its woe on the whole world other than the USA itself.   China have taken some great steps in recent months to build links with places like South America where Brazil are one of the other fastest growing economy in the World and also Africa. 

They have even offered today to place billions of dollars into the UK economy to build power stations!

I see greater woes ahead for the USA in the years ahead than I see for China.  Maybe we will have different opinions in 5 years time. 

I have a friend in Zhuhai that is doing well with properties there.  Maybe your friend bought at the wrong price!

Willy

[maxx]

yes we will see in 5 years

[Willy The Londoner]

You  must be serious Maxx as I have never seen such a short reply from you!!!!

I would have a bet with you but not sure if I have 5 years left in me or not to pay out or collect.

Willy

[JohnB]

For your information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-year_plans_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China

Twelfth Guideline (2011–2015)

The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline was debated in mid-October 2010 at the fifth plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the same session in which Xi Jinping was selected as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. A full proposal for the plan was released following the plenum and approved by the National People's Congress on March 14, 2011, with the goals of addressing rising inequality and creating an environment for more sustainable growth by prioritizing more equitable wealth distribution, increased domestic consumption, and improved social infrastructure and social safety nets.[7]
The plan is representative of China's efforts to rebalance its economy, shifting emphasis from investment towards consumption and development from urban and coastal areas toward rural and inland areas - initially by developing small cities and greenfield districts to absorb coastal migration. The plan also continues to advocate objectives set out in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan to enhance environmental protection, accelerate the process of opening and reform, and emphasize Hong Kong's role as a center of international finance.[7][8][9][10]
The targets for the Twelfth Five-Year Guideline in 2011 were to grow of GDP by around 8%, 7% annual growth of per capita income, spend 2.2% of GDP on research and development by 2015, bring the population below 1.39 billion by 2015, readjust income distribution to stop the yawning gap, firmly curb excessive rise of housing prices, implement prudent monetary policy, intensify anti-corruption efforts, accelerate economic restructuring, and deal with the complex situations in development in 2011.[11]
Among the other highlights of draft plan distributed to the media prior to the opening of the Fourth Session of the 11th NPC are:
Urbanization rate reaching 51.5%
Value-added output of emerging strategic industries accounting for 8% of GDP
Inviting of foreign investment in modern agriculture, high-tech, and environment protection industries
Moving coastal regions from being the "world's factory" to hubs of research and development, high-end manufacturing, and the service sector
More efficient development of nuclear power under the precondition of ensured safety
Increased momentum for large-scale hydropower plants in southwest China
Length of high-speed railways reaching 45,000 km
Length of highway networks reaching 83,000 km
A new airport being built in Beijing
36 million new affordable apartments for low-income people


I do not think that China will hit the dumps. They have the money, the resources, the people, they have the “brains” in understanding how this world works and their place in it.
I think it safe to say when you say China, it is not just “China” of old...that is so "singular". China has the luxury of money, their choice of investments as in anything/ anywhere, of their capacity to turn around their tightly controlled economy as far and as whatever re- direction they want.
I remember reading the above “New 5 Year Plan” when I visited there a couple years ago. It boggled my mind how the Chinese government wanted to re- direct 1.3 billion people from basically an export oriented vehicle to a consumption oriented vehicle. The desired result being the emergence of a larger Chinese Middle Class, to spend increasing monies on increasing production.

Anyone can piss & moan about controlled economies. What works, works. I will stick my dick out on this one and I will say that Wall Street greed & U.S. Congressional corruption started this world shit years ago. The SEC has flopped.
http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1322&context=lsfp   
America has been so corrupted by business demands that there is no prosecution of any of the Wall Street bankers. They walk with immunity because if you do not realize by know, America has a 2- tiered system of justice. It's laws are not applicable to all citizens. How do you go about unraveling this sordid mess of greed &  connivence?
 
Maybe Jack Abramoff is a good start.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57459874/jack-abramoff-the-lobbyists-playbook/ 

China can deal with what China wants. Their economy model can turn things around a lot faster than our government compromised & corrupted business model.
.

 
 

[maxx]

Willy I think you will be ok in 5 years.If you don't get sucked up into the Chinese revolution that is coming.John better Laied plans of mice and men.

John I'm going to send you the money for you and your wife to build a new house in China.I will send the money to Willy.Who will put it in a escrow account for you.That Willy's neighbor will have control of.Willy's neighbors second cousin twice removed will have access to the account.So that he can give the money to the construction company.so that they can build the house for you.

John do you see where I'm going with this.By the time the new deal floats down to the people the money has ben stolen.By some government lackey.And used to pay for his mistresses new car.And her jewelery.It all looks good on paper.Hell Communism looks good on paper.But when they actually try to use it.It falls flat on it's face.Because of one thing all the professors and philosophers didn't figure into the equation.Was the human factor.People think they work harder then the next person.So they think they deserve more of the pie.And by the time the pie reaches the people who really need it.There is nothing left.

I know you Brits think I drink DR.Pepper and smoke allot of dope.But I have seen programs like this first hand.Where the government was going to help the people.And the money dis sapeared.Before the people ever seen it.About 7 years ago.The Navajo Nation got a grant from B.I.A. (Buriel of Indian affairs) to build a farm.And to divert a major river.So that they could have the water.For the farm.Well the B.I.A. sent the money.And bought the equipment built the houses.And the barns.B.I.A. Even got them big time contracts.So that they could sell the produce.And the meat from the farm.If you have ever ate a potato chip.Or had a french fry.Or a pumpkin pie.Drank powdered milk.Or ate a green vegetable.there is a good chance that you have eaten food grown on the Navajo farm.The first four years the farm was in operation.It was bankrupt.The reason it was bankrupt is because all the government lackey's had there hand in the pie.

The corruption and embezzlement was so bad.That they stopped publishing the farm report.The same thing happens with the Navajo state fair.It runs for about a week the fair grounds are owned by the Navajo nation.If you want to go to the fair.you have to pay a entrance fee.If you want to be in the parade or the dance.Or sell your livestock at the fair.You have to pay big entrance fees.There are 150,000 card carring members of the Navajo nation.There is probably another 100,000 who are not Navajo Who go to the fair.Or have stuff entered in the fair.Or the parade.Every year.Yet every year the fair is broke.Nobody knows what happens to the 2 to 3 million dollars that fair generates every year.As a side note the last 3 Navajo nation presidents.Are setting in a federal prison.All for the same thing.Fraud and embezzlement charges.

Did I ever tell you how I got out of a ticket in China.I was driving a car.And I made a illegal u turn.And I wasn't wearing a seat belt.And I don't have a Chinese drivers license.I bribed the cop.I gave him 100 rmb.And he sent me on my way.The government lackey who was trying to run my wife's family.And all the neighbors out of the house they owned.He went swimming in the Yangtze river the other day.One of the neighbors had enough of this guy taking bribes.They thought he needed to clean himself up.

I tell you guys you want to see the real China.Get OuT of the big cities.Go out and see what China is really about.I've ben to a couple of third world countries.The people in the third world countries.Usually have it allot better.Then the people living in the villages in China.And I dammed sure would not invest my money into Latin America.They change dictators about every five years.I know a guy who's brother lives in Mexico.The guy has a crew of about  20 security guys.Around his house.And another 3 who are with him all the time.He has to bribe the local federallies(federal police) about once a month.To keep the thief's and riffraff out of his house.

Don't you guys.Think it is about time to stop blaming the Americans for all your financial woes.No American bank president ever held a gun to a British bankers head.And said here take the money.You all are starting to sound Like Obama.when he blames all of his problems and the countries problems on Busch.Suck it up do the right thing.And take responsibility for your own actions.And for your countries action.

We as Americans have all lost jobs,Houses,Retirement plans,Cars,And boats.We try each and every day to pick are selves up and move forward.And slowly and surely we are doing it.Financially I'm better off now then I was 4 years ago.I got another job.I stuck with the new job.Even though the new job payed about half of what the old job did.I Payed off the credit cards.Payed off the loans.I made enough money last year to fly to China with the wife and kids.Then leave them in China for 2 months.Then fly back to China.And help my wife bring the kids home.I think this is going to be the plan for Chinese new year.I'm just waiting for my wife to decide what she wants to do.I mite even make my own plan this year.I may drop them in China.And I may go down to Thailand.Or Singapore and hang out for a couple of weeks before I head back to the states.Or I mite go to Guam.And check out some of the local WW 2 history.I'm a little bit of a history buff.And there is a bunch of history there.And even more on the surrounding islands.So it would be interesting to me.

Willy no the Americans still won't take the low paying jobs.Or the manual labor jobs.Last summer Alabama passed a law.That said in short.That if you look like a foreigner.That they can stop you and check your papers.It scared the Mexican community so much.That they left the state.When it came time to harvest the crops.The farmers had no one to help them.Most of the farmers.Had to plow the crops under.I think they modified the law now.It says now that the cops have to have probable cause to stop you and check your papers.Which brings up another thought.Shouldn't we take the people on government assistance.And put them in the fields.And make them harvest the crops.You know make them work for the money that the government gives them.But Wait doesn't this make us uncivilized.

On another note do you know that if you own a farm in the United states.The government.Will pay you money not to plant any crops.Or just a few crops.The reason the government gives is it is to not have a over abundance of food.That will never get eaten.You know it isn't like us to sell it to the Arabs,Or the Koreans,Or the Cubans.Who have all tried at one point and time to blow us off the face of the earth.

I have drank more then a few beers and worked with Arabs Iraqis,Iranians.Pakistani,Cubans,Mexicans,Koreans.Lao,Vietnamese,Chinese,French Germans,Limey's.Thais Filipinos.I haven't met one yet that wants to blow the Americans off the face of the earth.So maybe you think that we get a bad rap along with the Brits.Just something to think about.

[Willy The Londoner]

Thats a lot to read Maxx. I will get through it all in the next few days.

I picked up on your illegal acts in China!!!! I say this if you was not driving without a licence or did an illegal U turn then you would not have have committed the more serious crime of bribery!   That is just compounding what you said about the bent Chinese system in the first place!!! LOL 

Secondly I was about 20 when the Bay of Pigs came up and Kruschev was sending his ships with their cargo of missiles to Cuban.  Many on here were either little kids or not ever conceived at that time.  It was Kennedy who with the threat of WW3 persuaded Kruschev to turn the ships round and go home.   For 50 years the ordinary people of Cuba have suffered for this act by having vindictive sanctions placed on them. 

Willy

[fivetrout]

I also think America is heading for another nose dive. And frankly it's going to get real ugly! Both parties are sick of the corruption and bipartisan congress that continues to get rich and accomplishing nothing. To me it's inconceivable that the presidential race is still a toss up? We need a working house and senate with a knife to their gut...just to keep them honest and productive! Then some heavy duty changes of reality that will hurt for awhile.

[Vince G]

Though the president gets the blame (no matter who) I believe clearing out the House & Senate and start anew would fix the problems. Having people that actually WORK would be helpful.